Top five betting moves following the Euro elections

1. UKIP go from 7/2 to 11/4 to win the Newark by-election. They “won” the seat in European votes, and that has livened up a market which was beginning to assume that the Tories would win easily.

newark1

2. Nick Clegg shortens into 4/1 to be ditched as Liberal Democrat leader before the general election. Personally, I don’t think it’s all that likely and Hills’ quote of 6/4 is probably just an attempt to garner media attention rather than a serious estimation of the probabilities. Ladbrokes can be guilty of that as well –  we’ve quoted Clegg at 25/1 to be next Governor of Gibraltar following the Liberal landslide on The Rock.

3. Thanet South is now 4/6 favourite to be the seat that Nigel Farage chooses to stand in at the general election. This is starting to resemble a treasure hunt at a pirate-themed kids’ birthday party. “South of the river” and now “next to the sea” have been the clues that Nigel has opened so far.

4. UKIP are now 1/2 to win a seat anywhere at the general election.

5. Ed Miliband is Evens to be next Prime Minister, pushed out from 4/5. That’s probably quite a fair price given that Labour are still odds-on to win most seats at the next general election. But nobody seems very interested in backing it.

pmblog

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