We’ve pushed UKIP out to 3/1 from 5/2 to win Thursday’s by-election.
There’s a clear split emerging in the betting market. On the one hand you have the “professional” politics watchers, most of whom are convinced the Tories will win and are happy to take 1/4; a nice 25% return in just a few days. On the other hand the “normal” betting public and locals want to back UKIP. Normally, you’re best off siding with the experts – but they (and we) got it very badly wrong in the Bradford West by-election when George Galloway stormed home having been backed from 33/1 downwards, fuelled by a surge of local money.
These prices could all change on Monday afternoon when Lord Ashcroft publishes his constituency poll.
Latest Newark odds:
How badly will the Lib Dems fare?
I think they will very likely lose their deposit. They were only on 5% in the Survation poll published last week. Although some parts of the media will point to a continuing crisis in Clegg’s position if they only get 3 or 4%, it really shouldn’t be very newsworthy. It’s perfectly normal for a party with no chance of winning to get squeezed in a competitive by-election like this.
On the other hand, if they were to get beaten by the Bus Pass Elvis Party, that really would be quite surprising. It happened in a recent council by-election, and Ladbrokes are quoting 25/1 that the same occurs in Newark.