Back in Newark today. Roger Helmer popped by again.
You’ll notice he has cunningly partly covered the 8/1 so that UKIP might only be 3/1. What a pro.
We offered 8/1 about UKIP to any locals who wanted a bet, but didn’t get a lot of interest. I thought I detected a little less enthusiasm from the UKIP workers and got the feeling that they were resigned to the fact that this was going to be another respectable second place.
No real changes in the betting, although we’ve added another market on UKIP’s vote share:
There seemed to be a lot of confidence among the supporters of local hospital campaigner Paul Baggeley. I won’t be particularly shocked if he beats the Lib Dems and Greens to finish fourth.
Bus Pass Elvis was around as well. I’m reasonably confident we won’t be paying out on the 25/1 that he beats the Lib Dems.
Ladbrokes are in the unusually nice position of winning whatever the outcome tomorrow. As things stand, UKIP would be the more profitable outcome of the two.