Here are the latest prices on today’s Newark by-election. Ladbrokes will have betting available until at least 6pm.
The prices had been steady for a couple of days, but we took a £5,000 bet on the Tories at 1/10 on Wednesday evening and have shortened them up to 1/14.
Plenty of people have had a bet on Bus Pass Elvis to beat the Liberal Democrats – that’s now 16/1 from 25/1. I’m not too worried.
Here’s my stab at a prediction of the result. It’s based on the bets we’ve taken, plus the feedback and opinion I picked up from voters, party workers and candidates on my two days in Newark.
- 39% Conservatives
- 30% UKIP
- 16% Labour
- 5% Paul Baggaley (Ind)
- 4% Liberal Democrats
- 3% Greens
- 55% Turnout
That would equate to a Tory majority of around 3,500 votes.
Here’s how the bets taken beaks down;
And here’s how the money staked has gone;
So, fewer but much bigger bets on a Conservative win.