Ladbrokes today took a £1,000 cash bet on Ed Miliband at Evens to be next Prime Minister. Those odds have now been cut to 4/5.
In my opinion, this was a good value bet for the Putney based punter. In fact, we knew the price was wrong (slightly). If Labour are odds-on to win most seats (currently 4/5), then it’s hard to believe that Ed shouldn’t be odds-on to be next PM. Yes, there is a small chance that he could get replaced as Labour leader before then. Also, there are probably some very tight election outcomes where Labour have most seats and Ed doesn’t become PM. There’s also the chance that Cameron is replaced by another Tory before the election. But even all of that doesn’t come to the 5% probability difference between Evens and 4/5.
It was Evens because no-one seemed very keen on having a betting slip with “Ed Miliband to be next PM” written on it. The biggest bet we’d taken on him beforehand was £50.
The largest wager we’ve taken so far on this market was £3,000 on Boris at 12/1 a couple of months ago. There are a lot of things that have to fall exactly right for that to happen. Our worst result would be Nigel Farage at 50/1.