This time last week, the odds on a NO vote were around 1/4 with most bookmakers. Now it’s generally about 1/5 and as short as 1/6 in places. You’d think there might have been some very bad news for the YES camp in recent polls. In fact, the complete opposite – the three polls this week have all been good for the Nationalists.
The fact that someone in London apparently had £400,000 on NO at 1/4 this week may have stimulated a few other people to think that this was a good investment, or that the odds were about to collapse. Ladbrokes certainly saw plenty of money at 1/5 during the week, despite the polling news pointing in the opposite direction. All the same we’ve shortened YES from 10/3 to 3/1 this morning and are now best price 2/9 about NO.
If I were wanting to back YES, I still think the 50-55% YES vote percentage band at 5/1 is a good way of doing it.