Ladbrokes already have general election odds on over 400 individual constituencies. According to our odds, here are UKIP’s Top 20 most likely wins in 2015.
|Seat||Region||Winner 2010||% Majority||UKIP Odds|
|Thanet South||South East||Conservative||16.6||6/4|
|Great Yarmouth||East of England||Conservative||9.9||3/1|
|Castle Point||East of England||Conservative||16.9||3/1|
|Folkestone and Hythe||South East||Conservative||19.2||3/1|
|Boston and Skegness||East Midlands||Conservative||28.8||7/2|
|Thurrock||East of England||Conservative||0.2||7/2|
|Louth and Horncastle||East Midlands||Conservative||27.5||4/1|
|Thanet North||South East||Conservative||31.2||4/1|
|Portsmouth South||South East||Lib-Dem||12.6||4/1|
|Rotherham||Yorks & Humber||Labour||27.9||4/1|
|Great Grimsby||Yorks & Humber||Labour||2.2||5/1|
|Cambridgeshire North West||East of England||Conservative||28.6||6/1|
|Camborne and Redruth||South West||Conservative||0.2||6/1|
|Cleethorpes||Yorks & Humber||Conservative||9.6||7/1|
Thanet South tops the list, mostly because we are expecting Farage to stand here; I think UKIP would go to about Evens in that seat if he does.
Most of the other seats are in areas where they’ve done very well in council and European elections or, in Eastleigh, put up a very good showing in a Westminster by-election. Based on the Eastleigh and Newark by-elections, it’s probably unlikely they can get much beyond the low to mid 30s as a percentage in any seat. So their best bets are probably going to be constituencies that they can turn into three or even four way marginals. The Greens managed to win their first seat, Brighton Pavilion, with just 31% of the vote.
Do I think there are any good bets here? Well, I have backed them to win in Eastleigh and Cleethorpes myself, but at bigger prices. Personally, I am of the opinion that the odds above generally over-estimate their chances, but there are plenty of punters out there who want to back them. I expect there might be a bit of value in taking on UKIP on in these seats.