Tory Leadership Contests – a betting history.

If the polls remain as they are (a big if) then we are probably a year or so away from a Tory leadership contest. Here is a look back at how the betting markets looked a year out from previous fights. In hindsight, there were some very surprising names in the frame.

September 2001 – IDS takes over from Hague

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The betting on next Tory leader in September 2000:

  • 6/4 Michael Portillo
  • 3/1 Ann Widdicombe (!)
  • 7/2 Ken Clarke
  • 5/1 Andrew Lansley
  • 7/1 Liam Fox
  • 16/1 Iain Duncan-Smith
  • 20/1 Theresa May
  • 50/1 Boris Johnson

October 2003 – Michael Howard takes over from IDS

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The betting on next Tory leader in October 2002:

  • 3/1 David Davis
  • 4/1 Theresa May
  • 7/1 Ken Clarke
  • 8/1 Oliver Letwin
  • 10/1 Liam Fox
  • 10/1 Michael Portillo
  • 20/1 Michael Howard

October 2005 – David Cameron takes over from Michael Howard

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The betting on next Tory leader in April 2005 (earliest date I could find Ladbrokes’ odds):

  • 5/2 David Davis
  • 6/1 Liam Fox
  • 9/1 David Cameron
  • 10/1 Andrew Lansley
  • 12/1 Theresa May
  • 12/1 Malcolm Rifkind
  • 12/1 Tim Collins (!)
  • 20/1 William Hague
  • 20/1 John Bercow
  • 22/1 George Osborne

(Tim Collins was the MP for Westmorland & Lonsdale who suffered a shock defeat to Tim Farron in the 2005 general election. Farron is now favourite to be next LD leader.)

I suppose you could conclude from that that it might be best to look for an outsider again this time. Here are Ladbrokes’ latest odds for Cameron’s successor:

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I’m on George Osborne at 33/1.

 

 

 

 

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