The SNP’s Top 10 Targets at Westminster

<> on February 17, 2014 in Aberdeen, Scotland.

According to Ladbrokes’ odds, here are the chances of the SNP holding each of their existing six seats and their top ten most likely gains:

Seat  Winner 2010  Majority %  SNP Odds
Angus  SNP  8.7 1/10
Perth & Perthshire North  SNP  9.1 1/10
Banff & Buchan  SNP  10.5 1/10
Moray  SNP  13.6 1/10
Na h-Eileanan an Iar  SNP  12.8 1/5
Dundee East  SNP  4.5 1/4
Gordon  Lib-Dem  13.8 5/4
Argyll & Bute  Lib-Dem  7.6 6/4
Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey  Lib-Dem  18.6 13/8
Ochil & Perthshire South  Labour  10.3 7/4
Falkirk  Labour  15.4 7/4
Ayrshire North & Arran  Labour  21.5 3/1
Dundee West  Labour  19.6 10/3
Fife North East  Lib-Dem  22.6 9/2
Kilmarnock & Loudoun  Labour  26.6 6/1
Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross  Lib-Dem  16.8 6/1

The big unknown is how the referendum result will effect their support. The polls and the betting markets strongly suggest a NO; in that instance the party will presumably offer themselves as the best option for those who want to secure further devolved powers from Westminster. There may be quite a large number of voters receptive to that, including many who are opposed to independence.

Even if that increases their vote share, they don’t have a single “easy” target seat. Their second best chance, Argyll & Bute, saw them finish fourth in 2010. Even with a huge collapse in Lib Dem support, it’s going to be hard for them to make significant progress in seat numbers.

snpseats

If Scotland votes YES in September, the voters will still be asked to elect Westminster MPs in May 2015, knowing that all of those positions will be abolished within two years. How that will effect the results is almost impossible to predict right now. For those who fancy a YES vote, there might be some value in backing the SNP at big odds in some of their less likely target seats.

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