Battleground London: Labour set to gain 6 seats in 2015

<> on November 4, 2009 in London, England.

Ladbrokes now have general election odds on all 73 seats in London.

Based on our prices, we’re expecting six Labour gains to be the only seats changing hands in the capital:

Winner 2010 Maj % Prediction
Hendon Conservative 0.2 LAB GAIN
Brentford and Isleworth Conservative 3.6 LAB GAIN
Enfield North Conservative 3.8 LAB GAIN
Croydon Central Conservative 6.0 LAB GAIN
Brent Central Lib-Dem 3.0 LAB GAIN
Hornsey and Wood Green Lib-Dem 12.5 LAB GAIN

In addition, we currently have one seat as “too close to call”; Ealing Central & Acton, where we’ve got the Tories and Labour at 10/11 joint favourites.

So, the Lib Dems are still favourites to hold on to their four SW London seats from Tory challenges and we have Simon Hughes still odds-on to retain Bermondsey & Old Southwark, although that is certainly one that Labour seem to fancy.

Unsurprisingly, UKIP aren’t given much hope of winning any seats here. According to Ladbrokes’ odds, their best chance is Dagenham and Rainham at 16/1.

So the odds suggest the following seat totals (and changes from 2010):

  • Lab 44 (+6)
  • Cons 24 (-4)
  • LD 5 (-2)

3 thoughts on “Battleground London: Labour set to gain 6 seats in 2015

  1. Agree with all except Croydon Central: Labour only scraped a win here in May’s council elections. Hendon was tight too: there were actually swings to the Tories in Edgware, Burnt Oak and Hendon wards (the late Colindale result swung it for Labour by being much better than the all-out results on 22nd May).

    You haven’t looked at Ilford North: Tories held on here in May – just – despite the Labour gain of Redbridge, but it’s moving rapidly in Labour’s favour and their candidate, Wes Streeting, is a high profile campaigner and (now) deputy council leader. Labour also won Southgate and closed a big gap in Chipping Barnet (bulk of their Barnet gains were in this constituency): unlikely either will tip this time but they are competitive seats.

    In terms of UKIP, they have replaced the Tories as challengers in Dagenham & Rainham, pretty close behind Labour and should mop in the Havering chunk of this seat. They actually “won” Hornchurch & Upminster if you discount the Residents Association vote there and hold six of the council seats. The other interesting UKIP seat is – surprisingly – Eltham, where UKIP zapped almost as many Labour votes as it did Tories. Doubt they can win but their vote is sufficiently large and sufficiently drawn from both main parties as to make this marginal seat more unpredictable,

    There’s a (very) outside shot for a Tory gain based on council election results: Hampstead & Kilburn. Tories gained more seats here in May (3 in Brondesbury Park, 1 in Hampstead Town, 1 in Belsize) than Labour (3 in West Hampstead, 2 in Fortune Green) and were only a few percent behind Labour. With Glenda Jackson retiring there’s potentially a chunk of personal vote up for grabs here. With a high profile Lib Dem candidate (Maajid Nawaz) who may hang on to a little more of the “progressive” vote than the Lib Dems managed in May this might- just might – tip Tory.

    Key thing to look at in London is white flight: proportion of white British voters leaving the capital. It’s happening on a massive scale: one third of the white British voters in Barking & Dagenham departed between 2001 and 2011; over 600,000 across London. Tories can’t compete with that so they’ll probably have a worse result here than in the country at large.

    • Thanks for the comments Adam, all very interesting. Just on Ilford North; we haven’t ignored it but still have the Tories as reasonably strong favs (2/7).

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s