Ladbrokes now have general election constituency odds on all 59 seats in the West Midlands. Based on those prices, we’re currently expecting eight seats to change hands.
|Seat||Winner 2010||% Majority||Prediction|
|Warwickshire North||Conservative||0.1||LAB GAIN|
|Wolverhampton South West||Conservative||1.7||LAB GAIN|
|Halesowen & Rowley Regis||Conservative||4.6||LAB GAIN|
|Cannock Chase||Conservative||7.0||LAB GAIN|
|Birmingham Yardley||Lib-Dem||7.3||LAB GAIN|
There is also one seat we rate as a coin toss, Warwick & Leamington, where Labour and the Tories are joint favourites.
The Liberal Democrats are set to lose the only two seats they hold in the region, although we have seen some money for them to hold Birmingham Yardley – that could be very close and John Hemming is just 6/4 to keep his job.
Based on local and European election results, UKIP look have the potential to do some damage to Labour in the Black Country and parts of Staffordshire . Ladbrokes rate their best chances as Newcastle-Under-Lyme at 6/1 and Walsall North at 8/1.
One other seat that might spring a surprise is Wyre Forest where former Independent MP Richard Taylor is planning to stand for the National Health Action party. We’ve got him at 8/1 to return to Westminster.
Here’s how the current odds suggest the region’s seats will split next year (with changes from 2010):
- Lab 31 (+7)
- Cons 28 (-5)
- LD 0 (-2)