Battleground South West: The ten seats set to change hands.

Our tour around the regions continues with the 55 seats in the South West. Ladbrokes have odds on every seat in Great Britain and, based on those prices, here are the ten seats we expect to change hands in SW England.

Seat Winner 2010 % Maj 2010 Prediction
Stroud Conservative 2.2 LAB GAIN
Plymouth Sutton & Devonport Conservative 2.6 LAB GAIN
Gloucester Conservative 4.8 LAB GAIN
Kingswood Conservative 5.1 LAB GAIN
Dorset Mid & Poole North Lib-Dem 0.6 CON GAIN
Wells Lib-Dem 1.4 CON GAIN
St Austell & Newquay Lib-Dem 2.8 CON GAIN
Somerton & Frome Lib-Dem 3.0 CON GAIN
Chippenham Lib-Dem 4.7 CON GAIN
Taunton Deane Lib-Dem 6.9 CON GAIN

If the odds are right, Jeremy Browne will be a high profile Lib Dem casualty, although the betting in Taunton Deane suggests a very tight result.

In 2010, the Tories gained eight seats from Labour in the region. The odds suggest half of those are going to switch back, but the Conservatives remain favourites in Bristol North West, Swindon North, Swindon South & Dorset South.

Although we are projecting that the Lib Dems will lose six seats, it’s not impossible that they might pick up a couple of new ones. The odds are just 3/1 that they gain Truro & Falmouth Partly, this is because of the possible strength of UKIP in the region; if they take enough votes from the Tories, a few other seats could come into play as well. We rate UKIP’s best chances of winning a seat as Camborne & Redruth at 5/1 and Christchurch at 6/1.

It’s a 100/1 shot that Mebyon Kernow manage to win a Westminster seat next year.

Here is the projected new seat breakdown in the region (with changes from 2010):

  • Cons 38 (+2)
  • LD 9 (-6)
  • Lab 8 (+4)

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