The five Scottish seats set to change hands in 2015

<> on February 17, 2014 in Aberdeen, Scotland.

Based on Ladbrokes’ odds in each individual constituency, we’re projecting that five seats in Scotland will change hands at the next general election. Amazingly, not a single seat switched in 2010 (ignoring a couple of seats regained after by-elections). Here are the constituencies most at risk this time. The “lose chance” is the probability, based on our odds, of the incumbent party being defeated :

Seat Winner 2010 Maj %  Prediction  Lose Chance
Argyll & Bute  LD 7.6  SNP GAIN  77.64%
Gordon  LD 13.8  SNP GAIN  64.42%
Dunbartonshire East  LD 4.5  LAB GAIN  63.18%
Edinburgh West  LD 8.2  LAB GAIN  60.58%
Inverness  LD 18.6  LD LOSS  56.85%
Aberdeenshire W & K  LD 8.2  LD HOLD  48.78%
Berwickshire, Rox & Sel  LD 11.6  LD HOLD  46.04%
Caithness, Suth & ER  LD 16.8  LD HOLD  36.62%
Ochil & Perthshire South  LAB 10.3  LAB HOLD  36.07%
Falkirk  LAB 15.4  LAB HOLD  35.51%
Dumfriesshire, C & T  CONS 9.1  CON HOLD  35.10%
Fife North East  LD 22.6  LD HOLD  33.19%
Dundee East  SNP 4.5  SNP HOLD  27.03%
Ross, Skye and Lochaber  LD 37.5  LD HOLD  12.61%
Orkney and Shetland  LD 51.3  LD HOLD  6.44%

Danny Alexander is given a 57% chance of losing his Inverness seat, but we aren’t forecasting a gain for any party, because the SNP and Labour are both in with a reasonable chance of winning it.  So, that still remains in the LD column in our overall totals below as he is still just about favourite, although odds-against.

We have the SNP as gaining two seats from the Liberal Democrats, but both are very hard to call, especially Argyll & Bute where they actually came fourth last time. This is probably the most difficult seat in Britain to forecast, with all four parties in with a shout. Their best chance of any gains from Labour come in Ochil & Perthshire South and Falkirk – you can back them at 7/4 in each of those two seats.

The Tories are forecast to remain with just one Scottish MP, although they have a couple of very plausible targets in Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk at 11/10, and Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine at 6/4.

Here are the projected new seat totals for Scotland, (with changes from 2010):

  • Lab 43 (+2)
  • SNP 8 (+2)
  • LD 7  (-4)
  • Cons 1 (nc)

Clearly, the big unknown is how the result of the Independence Referendum will affect voter behaviour. If there is a YES vote, then these MPs will presumably be out of a job within two years of the election.

indyref

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