The 4 seats Labour are forecast to gain in Yorkshire

Labour lost nine seats in the Yorkshire/Humber region in 2010. Today, Ladbrokes are forecasting that they will regain just four of those at the next general election. Below is a list of the seats most at risk of changing hands, along with the “lose percentage” which is the chance of the incumbent party being defeated, based on Ladbrokes individual constituency odds.

Seat Winner 2010 Maj% 2010 Lose Chance Prediction
Bradford East Lib-Dem 0.9 85.24% LAB GAIN
Pudsey Conservative 3.4 70.16% LAB GAIN
Dewsbury Conservative 2.8 69.59% LAB GAIN
Keighley Conservative 6.2 54.71% LAB GAIN
Elmet & Rothwell Conservative 8.1 44.09% CON HOLD
Colne Valley Conservative 8.8 43.74% CON HOLD
Cleethorpes Conservative 9.6 42.37% CON HOLD
Calder Valley Conservative 12.4 40.25% CON HOLD
Leeds North West Lib-Dem 20.9 30.96% LD HOLD
Bradford West Labour 14.2 27.55% LAB REGAIN
Sheffield Hallam Lib-Dem 29.9 27.10% LD HOLD
Brigg and Goole Conservative 11.7 26.44% CON HOLD
Great Grimsby Labour 2.2 24.96% LAB HOLD
Scarborough & Whitby Conservative 16.5 23.66% CON HOLD
Halifax Labour 3.4 22.52% LAB HOLD
Morley & Outwood Labour 2.3 20.14% LAB HOLD
Rotherham Labour 27.9 20.04% LAB HOLD

Bradford East looks like an extremely likely pick up for Labour, with sitting MP David Ward coming under criticism for some recent remarks about the Middle East. George Galloway is a 3/1 underdog to hold on to Bradford West for Respect after his stunning 2012 by-election victory. It’s a slightly uncomfortable point to make, but if the situation in Gaza is still a major issue in May 2015, that would probably increase his chances if he decides to stand again.

Pudsey, Dewsbury & Keighley are three seats that Labour have to be winning if Ed Miliband is to have any chance of becoming PM. If they are to ensure a majority, they probably need to be winning some of the seats further down the list as well.

The Lib Dem majority in Leeds North West should be enough to see them hold on. Likewise for Nick Clegg in Sheffield Hallam although he is by no means a certainty to be returning to Westminster. After his very narrow win in 2010, Ed Balls looks a lot safer in Morley & Outwood this time.

UKIP have emerged as very plausible challengers for the Labour held seat of Great Grimsby, with Austin Mitchell retiring. Rotherham has also become a realistic target for them after their spectacular gains in the town at May’s local elections.

 

 

 

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s