Ladbrokes project seven Labour gains in Eastern England

Labour only hold two seats in the East of England region, but Ladbrokes’ latest odds now suggest they will make seven gains in 2015. Below is a list of those seats along with the others we consider most at risk of changing hands. The “lose chance” is the probability that the incumbent party will be defeated, based on our odds for each individual constituency, which can be found here.

Seat 2010 winner Maj% 2010 Lose Chance Prediction
Norwich South Lib-Dem 0.7 93.02% LAB GAIN
Thurrock Conservative 0.2 80.12% LAB GAIN
Waveney Conservative 1.5 76.28% LAB GAIN
Bedford Conservative 3 67.42% LAB GAIN
Watford Conservative 2.6 63.81% LAB GAIN
Great Yarmouth Conservative 9.9 58.59% CON LOSS
Ipswich Conservative 4.4 57.27% LAB GAIN
Cambridge Lib-Dem 13.6 55.52% LAB GAIN
Norwich North Conservative 9.2 47.57% CON HOLD
Stevenage Conservative 8 39.18% CON HOLD
Peterborough Conservative 10.8 34.83% CON HOLD
Harlow Conservative 11.2 30.20% CON HOLD
Basildon S & Thurrock E Conservative 12.9 30.17% CON HOLD
Colchester Lib-Dem 15.1 26.73% LD HOLD
Castle Point Conservative 16.9 24.46% CON HOLD
St Albans Conservative 4.4 20.39% CON HOLD
Norfolk North Lib-Dem 23.4 19.48% LD HOLD

Our odds suggest that Simon Wright is the biggest outsider of any incumbent MP in the country, at a massive 12/1 to retain Norwich South. This should be Labour’s most straightforward gain, although the Greens aren’t discounted at 6/1.

Labour came third in Cambridge in 2010 but we make them just about favourites to unseat Julian Huppert. He’ll be hoping for a big first time incumbency bonus. There’s a very good piece about that here. Elsewhere, the Lib Dems look reasonably safe in Colchester and Norfolk North.

Watford looks like one of the tightest three way marginals in the country and the Lib Dems haven’t given up hope of gaining this seat from the Tories.  St Albans is another plausible Liberal gain.

Thurrock was the closest contest in the UK in 2010, but this isn’t totally straightforward for Labour. UKIP have been backed from 16/1 into 9/4 and they actually led in a recent Ashcroft poll of the constituency. There are several other seats here that we forecast UKIP will be a big factor in. They are just 5/2 to win Great Yarmouth, 3/1 in Castle Point and 7/1 in South Basildon.

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