Labour only hold two seats in the East of England region, but Ladbrokes’ latest odds now suggest they will make seven gains in 2015. Below is a list of those seats along with the others we consider most at risk of changing hands. The “lose chance” is the probability that the incumbent party will be defeated, based on our odds for each individual constituency, which can be found here.
|Seat||2010 winner||Maj% 2010||Lose Chance||Prediction|
|Norwich South||Lib-Dem||0.7||93.02%||LAB GAIN|
|Great Yarmouth||Conservative||9.9||58.59%||CON LOSS|
|Norwich North||Conservative||9.2||47.57%||CON HOLD|
|Basildon S & Thurrock E||Conservative||12.9||30.17%||CON HOLD|
|Castle Point||Conservative||16.9||24.46%||CON HOLD|
|St Albans||Conservative||4.4||20.39%||CON HOLD|
|Norfolk North||Lib-Dem||23.4||19.48%||LD HOLD|
Our odds suggest that Simon Wright is the biggest outsider of any incumbent MP in the country, at a massive 12/1 to retain Norwich South. This should be Labour’s most straightforward gain, although the Greens aren’t discounted at 6/1.
Labour came third in Cambridge in 2010 but we make them just about favourites to unseat Julian Huppert. He’ll be hoping for a big first time incumbency bonus. There’s a very good piece about that here. Elsewhere, the Lib Dems look reasonably safe in Colchester and Norfolk North.
Thurrock was the closest contest in the UK in 2010, but this isn’t totally straightforward for Labour. UKIP have been backed from 16/1 into 9/4 and they actually led in a recent Ashcroft poll of the constituency. There are several other seats here that we forecast UKIP will be a big factor in. They are just 5/2 to win Great Yarmouth, 3/1 in Castle Point and 7/1 in South Basildon.