It has been pretty much one-way traffic in the indyref betting markets over the weekend, with the money continuing to pour in for a YES vote in 17 days time; we cut the odds again to 7/2.
2011 Scottish Parliamentary Elections
I’ve seen some people using the May 2011 Scottish Parliamentary elections as an example of how the bookies and pollsters “got it wrong” and missed a late SNP surge. Actually, at this stage two and a half weeks out from that vote, the SNP were very strong favourites to win the most seats at Holyrood, at 4/9. It’s true that Labour had been even stronger favourites at one point; they were as short as 1/12 in February 2011 and it wasn’t until mid April that the SNP took over at the top of the market; by polling day, the SNP were 1/25. I think it’s fair to say that the eventual scale of the Nationalists victory took most of us by surprise. So, perhaps that is something for YES backers to use as evidence of a potential late surge for independence.