Could we be heading for a YES landslide in the indyref?

With the money continuing to favour a YES vote, the odds for independence are now 5/2, not far off an all time low at Ladbrokes.

One very active market has been the YES vote percentage betting:


The striking thing is how keen punters have been to back a YES vote of over 55%. From the very start it has been the most popular option, originally available at 20/1 and now an amazingly short 11/2. Here’s how the money staked on this market has broken down:


That’s correct; over half of the money we have taken has been for a YES victory of over 55%. Personally, I think it extremely unlikely that YES could win by that much; surely if they do win, it will be by a very narrow margin. 50-55% probably isn’t a bad bet at 10/3 if you wanted to get with YES.

Anyway, as a result, an easy win for independence is now Ladbrokes’ nightmare scenario. As things stand, it would comfortably be the worst ever result for the company on a non-sports market. I’m not updating my cv just yet, but this blog might be going a bit quiet for a few weeks after September 18th if it happens.

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