Indyref photo finish now just an 8/1 chance

A wild weekend of indyref polls and betting saw the odds of a YES victory hit an all-time low of 7/4, although the price has now eased to 2/1. You can find all of our latest odds here.

indylatest

The odds of a “photo finish” with the margin of victory being less than 1% have now hit 8/1 – you could have got 33/1 when we first quoted that possibility last month.

The YES vote percentage line has moved up from 43.5% to 47.5% in less than a week, which means our central projection is that NO will still win this by about 5%. I guess we are still relying on the political science here, which suggests that it is more likely that undecideds will break for NO. That’s because uncommitted voters in these sorts of referenda have shown a tendency to move toward the status quo, although some suggest that it is better to look as it as people heading toward the least risky option. It’s possible that the YES camp have done a good job of pointing out that a NO vote has many risks as well, notably on EU membership and the NHS. Perhaps that will tilt the balance in the favour of independence.

We’ve also started to see some shrewd money on the SNP picking up some unlikely gains from Labour in next year’s Westminster general election. We’ve shortened their odds in a number of seats including Glasgow East, Glenrothes and Airdree & Shotts.

 

 

2 thoughts on “Indyref photo finish now just an 8/1 chance

  1. Trouble you’ve got here is the same reason the shift in the polls has caught a lot of people off guard – so far undecideds have been splitting to Yes, partly because they tend to be further down the income scale and thus more receptive to the Yes campaign’s left wing bent. What people do when faced with the ballot paper in the voting booth is, of course, anyone’s guess.

    Now that you’ve shifted the Scottish general election constituency odds, any chance you might at least raise the max stake limits? For a massive corporation, £20 is feeble.

    • We’ll definitely raise those max stake limits as we get nearer the 2015 election. Right now we are very cautious admittedly, but with good reason. We expect to lose money to people betting on these things so early. So we either keep the limits low, or just pull all of the markets during periods of volatility. We’ve gone for the former.

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