How far will Carswell win by in Clacton?

With UKIP now an almost unbackable 1/100 shot to win today’s by-election, the main betting interest is now concentrated on just how far Carswell will win by. It’s only 10/1 that he gets over 70% of the vote.


Carswell got 53% of the vote as the Tory candidate at the general election and the two polls conducted in the wake of his defection suggest he might do even better standing for UKIP:


Having spent a day in the town on Tuesday, there was surprisingly little in the way of campaigning going on that I saw. Certainly nothing like the Newark by-election in June. Perhaps that’s just a reflection of how much of a foregone conclusion this has become; I’m expecting much more of a fight for the upcoming Rochester & Strood contest.

Here’s how the number of bets has broken down on the UKIP vote share market:


We’ve also got a market on the turnout, you can bet over or under 50% and most of the money has been for over, which is now 4/6 from 5/6. You can find all of our latest odds here.

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