How many seats will UKIP win next year?

Following UKIP’s easy win Clacton last night and their close up second in Heywood & Middleton, betting speculation has turned on to how many seats they might win at next year’s general election. Below are their top 25 prospects according to Ladbrokes’ individual constituency odds. The UKIP win % is their chances of taking each of the seats as implied by our latest prices.

Seat 2010 Win % Maj UKIP Win %
Clacton Cons 28 82.25%
Thanet South Cons 16.6 60.67%
Boston and Skegness Cons 28.8 50.33%
Thurrock Cons 0.2 40.45%
Great Yarmouth Cons 9.9 36.51%
Thanet North Cons 31.2 33.43%
Great Grimsby Labour 2.2 27.65%
Castle Point Cons 16.9 26.29%
Rotherham Labour 27.9 22.66%
Louth and Horncastle Cons 27.5 22.66%
Basildon S & Thurrock E Cons 12.9 20.22%
Camborne and Redruth Cons 0.2 20.16%
Folkestone and Hythe Cons 19.2 18.00%
Portsmouth South LD 12.6 18.00%
Eastleigh LD 7.2 16.45%
Cambridgeshire NW Cons 28.6 15.28%
Newcastle-under-Lyme Labour 3.6 15.13%
Sittingbourne & Sheppey Cons 25.5 14.97%
Christchurch Cons 31.2 13.09%
Dover Cons 10.5 13.02%
Rochester and Strood Cons 20.8 12.75%
Basingstoke Cons 26 12.65%
Walsall North Labour 2.7 11.50%
Cleethorpes Cons 9.6 11.31%
Dudley North Labour 1.7 11.25%
Spelthorne Cons 21.2 11.23%

So, at the moment, they only have three seats in which they are probable winners, including Clacton, now the biggest certainty of the lot. However, there are now many other seats in which they have a realistic shot at winning.

The list doesn’t include Rochester & Stood, but if Mark Reckless manages to win the by-election there, it clearly becomes another great prospect for May 2015. UKIP have been backed down from 1/2 to 4/11 to win that contest today. I still believe that a Newark-type effort from the Tories could see them hold on there.

Following the Heywood & Middleton result, much is being made of the impact UKIP might have on Labour. Of the 25 seats above though, only five are Labour held as opposed to 18 Tory seats, including all of the top six. At current polling levels, it seems likely that UKIP will eat into some of Labour’s big majorities in the North of England, without costing them many seats. On the other hand, they could directly win several Tory seats and prevent them taking a number of Lib Dem seats in the South West. So in the short term, if our odds are any guide, this is still much more of a headache for David Cameron than it is for Ed Miliband.

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