UKIP odds shorten again following new Rochester poll

A 13% lead for UKIP saw their odds contract from 1/3 yesterday to 1/5 this morning. Not a particularly surprising result, as the Survation poll three weeks ago gave them a 9% lead and UKIP’s national vote share has been rising in the meantime.

rochesteror

It seems that this poll was commissioned by a UKIP supporter, I guess that will cause some scepticism among certain people. I remember UKIP supporters dismissing a Lord Ashcroft poll for the Newark by-election because he was “bound” to favour the Tories. Nonsense of course, but I suppose it is worth asking the question whether this poll would have seen the light of day had it been less encouraging for UKIP. If we only ever see the “good” numbers, then privately commissioned polls will tend to give us a misleading picture. Nate Silver has written about this subject in relation to US elections.

We’ve released some odds on the turnout in Rochester today – you can back it to be either over or under 50%

rochesterto

You can find all of our latest odds here.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s