The odds of Ed Miliband being replaced as Labour leader shortened again over the weekend to 7/2, having been 7/1 less than a week ago. Roughly, that means the chances of it happening increased from 12% to 22%, according to Ladbrokes’ prices.
The constitution of the Labour party does not make it an easy process to force him out; the most likely scenario is that he decides to quit, perhaps after a large number of senior figures make it clear that they no longer support him. Not very likely, but if we see saw the Tories taking a steady lead in the polls, certainly not impossible.
Speculation continued to surround the possibility of Alan Johnson taking over: His odds have been cut from 33/1 into 10/1 in the last two weeks.
Andy Burnham has been the other most talked about replacement, with some gossip of an agreement between him and Yvette Cooper not to stand against one another in the event of an imminent vacancy.
Here are the top five candidates in order of the amount of money we have taken, since we started betting on Ed’s successor (and the odds that we quoted in September 2010 when he was first elected).
- 3/1 Yvette Cooper (5/1 in Sep 2010)
- 8/1 Chuka Umunna (12/1)
- 4/1 Andy Burnham (14/1)
- 16/1 Tristram Hunt (100/1)
- 10/1 Alan Johnson (33/1)