There’s been a bit of a gamble on the SNP to win the most seats in Scotland in next May’s general election. Available at 11/10 this morning, a rush of money has seen them move into 8/11 favourites.
There hasn’t been any particularly new polling or news developments over the weekend that I am aware of to cause this. When you get this sort of move, it’s most likely some kind of tipping line, or perhaps a coordinated group of gamblers.
We’ve also made a number of adjustments to our constituency betting north of the border. Let’s have a look at the seats in which the SNP are now clear favourites, and their latest chances of winning each seat, as implied by Ladbrokes’ odds:
6 SNP HOLDS
- 93% Moray
- 91% Angus
- 92% Dundee East
- 90% Banff & Buchan
- 87% Na h-Eileanan an lar
- 85% Perth & North Perthshire
8 GAINS FROM LIB DEMS
- 77% Gordon
- 66% Argyll & Bute
- 61% Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey
- 61% Fife North East
- 59% Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross
- 45% Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine
- 43% Edinburgh West
- 34% Dunbartonshire East (joint favs w/Labour)
3 GAINS FROM LABOUR
- 71% Ochil & South Perthshire
- 64% Falkirk
- 63% Dundee West
So, if they win every seat in which they are favourites, that still only leaves them with 17. They will likely need to win around 27 in order to be the largest party in Scotland. Which probably indicates that either our constituency odds for the SNP are a little too generous or that Labour are a good price at Evens to win most seats. I expect the answer probably lies somewhere in the middle.