Reckless likely to lose next May, say bookies.

Ladbrokes odds the morning after Rochester by-election

Ladbrokes odds the morning after Rochester by-election

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The morning after last week’s Rochester and Strood by-election, we made the Tories 4/6 favourites to re-take the seat next May. Punters have been even more bullish and the Conservatives are now even stronger favourites, at 1/2, with UKIP drifting out to 6/4.

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According to our individual constituency prices, that means Rochester & Strood is now the eighth most likely win for UKIP at the general election. The UKIP win % is the chance of them taking the seat at the general election, as implied by our odds.

Rank Seat Win 2010 UKIP Win %
1 Clacton Cons 82.25%
2 Thanet South Cons 64.58%
3 Thurrock Cons 57.47%
4 Boston & Skegness Cons 56.06%
5 Great Yarmouth Cons 40.33%
6 Castle Point Cons 38.47%
7 Thanet North Cons 36.55%
8 Rochester & Strood Cons 35.87%
9 Great Grimsby Lab 32.94%
10 Rotherham Lab 28.51%
11 Cannock Chase Cons 27.91%
12 Dover Cons 27.77%
13 Louth & Horncastle Cons 26.29%
14 Basildon S & Thurrock E Cons 25.67%
15 Folkestone & Hythe Cons 22.65%
16 Sittingbourne & Sheppey Cons 22.57%
17 Eastleigh LD 20.81%
18 Camborne & Redruth Cons 20.23%
19 St Austell & Newquay LD 19.83%
20 Portsmouth South LD 19.66%

So, 15 of their top 20 prospects are Tory held seats although it’s worth pointing out that UKIP might prevent Labour from winning seats like Thurrock, Yarmouth and Cannock Chase which would all be very high on Ed Miliband’s target list.

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