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The morning after last week’s Rochester and Strood by-election, we made the Tories 4/6 favourites to re-take the seat next May. Punters have been even more bullish and the Conservatives are now even stronger favourites, at 1/2, with UKIP drifting out to 6/4.
According to our individual constituency prices, that means Rochester & Strood is now the eighth most likely win for UKIP at the general election. The UKIP win % is the chance of them taking the seat at the general election, as implied by our odds.
|Rank||Seat||Win 2010||UKIP Win %|
|4||Boston & Skegness||Cons||56.06%|
|8||Rochester & Strood||Cons||35.87%|
|13||Louth & Horncastle||Cons||26.29%|
|14||Basildon S & Thurrock E||Cons||25.67%|
|15||Folkestone & Hythe||Cons||22.65%|
|16||Sittingbourne & Sheppey||Cons||22.57%|
|18||Camborne & Redruth||Cons||20.23%|
|19||St Austell & Newquay||LD||19.83%|
So, 15 of their top 20 prospects are Tory held seats although it’s worth pointing out that UKIP might prevent Labour from winning seats like Thurrock, Yarmouth and Cannock Chase which would all be very high on Ed Miliband’s target list.