The Top 10 Labour seats under threat from UKIP

Lots of talk today about which party will be most affected by UKIP in next year’s general election. The Evans & Mellon article above suggests the Tories still have most to worry about, but I thought I’d have a look at which Labour seats are most at threat, as indicated by Ladbrokes’ latest constituency odds. The UKIP Win % is their chances of gaining each seat, as implied by the latest prices.

Seat Region UKIP Win %
Great Grimsby Yorks & Humber 32.9%
Rotherham Yorks & Humber 28.5%
Dudley North West Midlands 17.9%
Newcastle-under-Lyme West Midlands 15.1%
Rother Valley Yorks & Humber 15.0%
Walsall North West Midlands 12.9%
Heywood and Middleton North West 10.2%
Walsall South West Midlands 10.1%
Hull East Yorks & Humber 10.1%
Plymouth Moor View South West 10.0%

So, UKIP are not (yet) favourites to win a single Labour seat, whereas they are outright favourites in five Tory held seats (we’re including Clacton in there). It’s worth mentioning that seats like Thurrock and Great Yarmouth, which are among those five, might very well have had Labour as favourites to win if it were not for an expected strong UKIP showing.

Of UKIP’s top 20 most likely wins overall, 16 were won by the Conservatives in 2010. So, as far as the betting markets are concerned, this is still more of a problem for David Cameron than it is for Ed Miliband,

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