There has been some noticeable support for Plaid Cymru in some of our constituency betting in recent weeks. They currently hold three Westminster seats and have three further plausible targets for May. Below is a table showing their chances of winning each of those seats, as implied by Ladbrokes’ latest odds in each individual seat.
|Seat||2010 Winner||Majority %||PC Win %|
|Carmarthen East & Dinefwr||PC||9.2||75.43%|
In Llanelli, their odds have shortened from 16/1 into 5/1 over the last couple of weeks. I’m not sure what in particular might have driven that. South Wales looks like an area that UKIP might be able to win over some Labour voters, so perhaps that could give Plaid an opportunity to sneak through the middle in a seat like this. Ynys Mon might also be a constituency in which UKIP could do well, so maybe that will help the nationalists there too.
Ladbrokes have released odds on the total number of seats that PC will win at the general election, and we make it odds-on that they will make at least one gain.