Thanet South was already projected to be the top betting constituency of the election, and Al Murray’s decision to stand can only help. There are already eight intended runners here, and we might even get close to the all time record of fifteen candidates.
We make him a narrow underdog in a match bet against the Lib Dems; I expect both will poll under 5% and lose their deposits. If I had to guess, I’d predict he will get around 2% of the vote, so it’s unlikely his standing will make any difference to the result. On balance, it will probably be marginally helpful to Nigel Farage’s chances of winning, but not enough to cause any shift in the odds.