If the Green surge is going to convert into seats, it’s pretty clear from Ladbrokes’ odds that Bristol West could become their second Westminster victory.
A Green victory here would be very bad news for Ladbrokes; when we opened up our betting on the seat last July, they were 100/1. Now they’ve been backed down to 5/1 and I wouldn’t be surprised to see that get shorter still. We hadn’t properly appreciated the recent local gains that the party had made here (after all, they won under 4% of the vote in the last general election).
The very large student population is undoubtedly a factor here. However, there are early indications that student registration on the electoral roll may fall as a result of Individual Electoral Registration, which might hamper the Greens more than any other party. The apparent large increases in Green membership may help them with the extra organisation and resources they will need to combat this issue.