The Five Seats that a Green Surge could hand to the Tories

Whilst the Greens’ odds in places like Bristol West & Norwich South have shortened a little in recent days, the more significant betting moves have been in seats where a Green Surge have improved the odds of a Tory victory.

Below are five seats in which the Conservative odds have shortened as a result of an expected improvement in the Green vote. These aren’t seats that anyone really expects the Greens to win; anyone who disagrees can take advantage of the odds on a Green gain in each constituency, which I have helpfully included.

I’ve also shown the current forecast vote share for each seat as projected by the excellent electionforecast site.

Cons Lab Greens Green Odds
Brighton Kemptown 37% 35% 10% 25/1
Hove 36% 34% 14% 25/1
Stroud 35% 37% 12% 25/1
Norwich North 34% 31% 11% 50/1
Bristol NW 33% 32% 7% 66/1

So, in four of these seats, the projected Green vote share easily covers the projected Tory majority. In the other, Stroud, it’s making the outcome a whole lot closer than it might otherwise be.

Of course, not every Green voter is someone who would otherwise vote Labour. I expect there are a lot of people in there who otherwise wouldn’t bother to vote, as well as a lot of ex-Lib Dems. All the same, I think the Labour challengers in each of these seats will be pushing a “Vote Green, Get Tory” message, and I don’t think anyone could really blame them for that.

You can find our odds on every GB constituency here.

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