For the first time since March 2012, we now make the Conservatives favourites to win most seats at the general election.
Polling data over the last few days has been reasonably favourable for the Tories, without showing anything particularly dramatic. Two factors in particular have been key:
- Continuing polling evidence of a solid SNP lead in Scotland
- A “Green Surge” which could enable the Conservatives to hold on to a number of seats where the left vote splits.
Even when Labour were a lot further ahead in the polls, political punters have been reluctant to back them. Here is the percentage of money staked since we opened the market immediately after the 2010 election:
The overwhelming majority of punters want to be with the Tories and now the odds reflect that. You can find our full range of general election odds here.