Ladbrokes Election Forecast: Lab 278 – Con 274.

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The Ladbrokes’ Election Forecast is based on our odds in each individual constituency and shows what would happen if the current favourite were to win in each seat.

The full breakdown, with the changes since last week:

  • 278 Labour  (-9)
  • 274 Conservatives (nc)
  • 39 SNP (+9)
  • 31 Liberal Democrats (n/c)
  • 5 UKIP (n/c)
  • 3 PC (n/c)
  • 1 Green (n/c)
  • 1 Speaker
  • 18 Northern Ireland

So, the update since last week shows nine seats moving directly from the Labour column into SNP hands, mostly as a result of Lord Ashcroft’s constituency polling:

  • Paisley & Renfrewshire North
  • Midlothian
  • Lanark & Hamilton East
  • Glasgow North West
  • Glasgow South
  • East Kilbride, Strathaven & Lesmahagow
  • Airdrie & Shotts
  • Cumbernauld, Kilsyth & Kirkintolloch East
  • Motherwell & Wishaw

Paisley & Renfrewshire South also briefly moved into the SNP column, before punters backed Labour back into favouritism. Probably a reaction to the SNP pitching a 20 year old candidate up against Douglas Alexander.

The Scotland only result would be (with the changes since 2010)

  • 39 SNP (+33)
  • 16 Lab (-25)
  • 3 LD (-8)
  • 1 Con (n/c)

If we actually got the overall result above, there would be a number of different post-election governments that might work, but it looks a lot easier for Ed Miliband to form an administration with these numbers than David Cameron. I’d still bet on some type of Labour minority government with the nationalists giving them passive support, at least for a while.

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