How many seats will the Scottish Tories win?

Ladbrokes released some odds today on how the Conservatives will get on in Scotland on May 7th. We make it Evens that they stay on their current total of one seat.

conscot

Our individual constituency odds show that they are pretty strong favourites to hold on to their existing seat and that they have three reasonable chances to add to it:

Seat 2010 win Lab odds Con odds LD odds SNP odds
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweedale Conservative 7/1 2/5 100/1 3/1
Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk Lib-Dem 100/1 7/4 5/6 7/2
Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine Lib-Dem 100/1 3/1 5/2 4/5
Dumfries & Galloway Labour 1/2 9/2 100/1 3/1

Whilst 2010 saw a grand total of zero seats change hands in Scotland, it’s now perfectly possible that a majority of the constituencies will do so this year. Looking at the latest Ladbrokes odds on each individual seat, the Scottish seat totals would break down as follows if the current favourites were to win in each constituency:

  • 39 SNP (+33)
  • 16 Lab (-25)
  • 3 LD (-8)
  • 1 Con (n/c)

It’s worth checking out Steven Fisher’s excellent piece on the situation in Scotland. In particular, he points out that Labour shouldn’t be expecting any help from Tory or Lib Dem voters in their bid to stop the SNP.

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