|Seat||2010 Winner||UKIP Win %|
|Boston and Skegness||Conservative||57.0%|
|Rochester and Strood||Conservative||51.7%|
Above are the seven constituencies in which UKIP are now outright favourites to win, according to Ladbrokes latest odds. The UKIP Win % is the implied chance of them winning the seat based on our odds in every single constituency in Britain, which you can find here.
The most recent move has been in Rochester, where Mark Reckless improved from joint to outright favourite today. The immediate betting reaction to their by-election win had been that the Tories were likely to take it back in May – that’s no longer the case.
Although UKIP are narrow favourites in Great Yarmouth, their chances are rated at less than 50% as this looks like a tight three way marginal; we’ve seen a little bit of money for a Tory hold in recent days.