UKIP now favourites in seven seats

Seat 2010 Winner UKIP Win %
Clacton Conservative 84.4%
Thurrock Conservative 57.9%
Thanet South Conservative 57.3%
Boston and Skegness Conservative 57.0%
Castle Point Conservative 52.7%
Rochester and Strood Conservative 51.7%
Great Yarmouth Conservative 39.9%

Above are the seven constituencies in which UKIP are now outright favourites to win, according to Ladbrokes latest odds. The UKIP Win % is the implied chance of them winning the seat based on our odds in every single constituency in Britain, which you can find here.

The most recent move has been in Rochester, where Mark Reckless improved from joint to outright favourite today. The immediate betting reaction to their by-election win had been that the Tories were likely to take it back in May – that’s no longer the case.

Although UKIP are narrow favourites in Great Yarmouth, their chances are rated at less than 50% as this looks like a tight three way marginal; we’ve seen a little bit of money for a Tory hold in recent days.


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