The chances of the Tories winning the popular vote but ending up with fewer seats than Labour are now rated at just 3/1 by Ladbrokes.
Thanks largely to Labour’s more efficient vote distribution, a narrow Tory vote advantage will probably translate into Labour winning most seats. A few months back, it looked like the Conservatives would need to be at least 2.5% ahead to ensure they were the biggest party. That figure is probably a little lower now as a result of Labour’s woes in Scotland.
There is also every chance that UKIP will win many more votes than the Liberal Democrats and finish with far fewer seats. However, the argument that the Lib Dems are now doing well from the First Past The Post system doesn’t really stack up. Even if they got the 7% vote share which they are averaging at the moment, a directly proportional number of GB seats would be 44. Ladbrokes currently rate them as favourites in just 31 constituencies.