A lot of the speculation on “The Most Unpredictable Election Ever” has focused on what happens with the SNP, Greens and UKIP. Their impact will certainly be significant, but the key to the election now probably hinges on a couple of dozen Labour/Tory marginals, mostly in small town England
There are 34 seats that the Tories gained from Labour in 2010, in which Labour are currently favourites to regain. If the Tories can’t win a chunk of these on May 7th, Cameron will probably be leaving Downing Street.
|Seat||Maj% 2010||Lab Odds||Con Odds|
|Brentford and Isleworth||3.6||1.28||3.5|
|Wolverhampton South West||1.7||1.28||3.75|
|Lancaster and Fleetwood||0.8||1.33||3.5|
|Plymouth Sutton and Devonport||2.6||1.36||3.5|
|Hastings and Rye||4||1.44||3|
|Morecambe and Lunesdale||2||1.57||2.375|
|Ealing Central and Acton||7.9||1.67||2.1|
|Halesowen and Rowley Regis||4.6||1.72||2.375|
|Chester, City of||5.5||1.72||2|
It’s a bit of an anomaly that the Tories have become fairly strong favourites in the overall most seats market, but remain outsiders in a number of constituencies that they’ll almost certainly have to win in order to come out as the biggest party, never mind get anywhere near a majority.