The Labour/Tory marginals that could decide the election

A lot of the speculation on “The Most Unpredictable Election Ever” has focused on what happens with the SNP, Greens and UKIP. Their impact will certainly be significant, but the key to the election now probably hinges on a couple of dozen Labour/Tory marginals, mostly in small town England

There are 34 seats that the Tories gained from Labour in 2010, in which Labour are currently favourites to regain. If the Tories can’t win a chunk of these on May 7th, Cameron will probably be leaving Downing Street.

Seat Maj% 2010 Lab Odds Con Odds
Hendon 0.2 1.22 3.75
Cardiff North 0.4 1.22 3.75
Brentford and Isleworth 3.6 1.28 3.5
Wolverhampton South West 1.7 1.28 3.75
Sherwood 0.4 1.28 3.75
Weaver Vale 2.3 1.3 3.5
Corby 3.5 1.28 3.75
Lancaster and Fleetwood 0.8 1.33 3.5
Warwickshire North 0.1 1.33 3.5
Plymouth Sutton and Devonport 2.6 1.36 3.5
Waveney 1.5 1.36 3.75
Warrington South 2.8 1.4 2.875
Broxtowe 0.7 1.4 3
Hove 3.8 1.44 3
Amber Valley 1.2 1.44 3.25
Bedford 3 1.44 2.75
Hastings and Rye 4 1.44 3
Lincoln 2.3 1.44 2.75
Carlisle 2 1.5 2.625
Dewsbury 2.8 1.5 2.625
Bury North 5 1.53 2.5
Erewash 5.3 1.57 2.75
Stroud 2.2 1.53 2.5
Croydon Central 6 1.57 2.25
Morecambe and Lunesdale 2 1.57 2.375
Brighton Kemptown 3.1 1.61 2.25
Ealing Central and Acton 7.9 1.67 2.1
Nuneaton 4.6 1.67 2.25
Halesowen and Rowley Regis 4.6 1.72 2.375
Chester, City of 5.5 1.72 2
Stockton South 0.7 1.72 2.1
Pudsey 3.4 1.72 2
Keighley 6.2 1.73 2.1
Ipswich 4.4 1.72 2

It’s a bit of an anomaly that the Tories have become fairly strong favourites in the overall most seats market, but remain outsiders in a number of constituencies that they’ll almost certainly have to win in order to come out as the biggest party, never mind get anywhere near a majority.

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