Ashcroft polling – the betting reaction

I don’t think there’s much doubt that Labour will feel the happier of the two main parties about the latest round of Ashcroft marginal polling.


I think it’s fair to be a little cautious about these polls. I could be wrong, but in terms of comparing them to last October’s surveys, I don’t think we actually know whether the same polling company was responsible for both. Still, to some extent these numbers back up some of the odds in these sorts of seats which have looked surprisingly Labour friendly for some time. With the Tories as short as 4/9 to win most seats, one would expect them to be doing better in these marginals, if those odds are a true reflection of the situation.

Just for comparison, here are the latest odds in these seats.

Tory Odds Lab Odds Ashcroft
City of Chester 11/10 4/6 Lab+11
Croydon Central 5/4 4/7 Lab+4
Halesowen & Rowley Regis 10/11 10/11 Lab+2
Nuneaton 5/7 8/13 Lab+5
Southampton Itchen 2/1 2/5 Lab+8
Swindon South 8/15 11/8 Tie
Wirral West 5/6 5/6 Lab+5
Worcester 8/13 5/4 Cons+6

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