Cameron’s not going to serve a third term – headline news for the media but a resounding shrug of the shoulders from the betting markets. It’s hard to see how it will make any difference to the result in May.
Still, we did shuffle our odds on exactly which year Cameron will leave the post of Prime Minister:
The odds on a 2020 departure haven’t altered; the betting had already worked out that it was unlikely he’ll even get that far. The main change we made was to cut the odds of a 2017 exit from 7/1 to 4/1. If he is still in place after this election, the next key point in his premiership is likely to be a 2017 EU Referendum. Win or lose, it looks like the perfect opportunity for him to step aside.
Dave also nominated Osborne, May and Boris as possible successors. No surprise there, they were the front three in the betting anyway.