How many seats will UKIP win?

Matthew Engel in the Racing Post today tipped up a bet for UKIP to win just one seat on May 7th. That was 9/2 and is now 4/1 with Ladbrokes.


Looking at the individual seat by seat odds, we can produce a UKIP Win % for each seat showing the chances of them being successful in each seat.

Rank Seat UKIP Win %
1 Clacton 84%
2 Thurrock 58%
3 Thanet South 56%
4 Castle Point 46%
5 Rochester and Strood 45%
6 Boston and Skegness 44%
7 Great Grimsby 40%
8 Thanet North 28%
9 Cannock Chase 28%
10 Rotherham 26%
11 Dudley North 24%
12 Sittingbourne and Sheppey 24%
13 Louth and Horncastle 23%
14 Great Yarmouth 21%
15 Wyre Forest 20%
16 Basildon South and Thurrock East 20%

So, Carswell looks very safe in Clacton and UKIP are also clear favourites in Thurrock and Thanet South. However, in the latter two seats, confidence in the betting markets has been waning slightly in the last couple of weeks. Similarly, in Rochester & Strood, Mark Reckless was favourite a few weeks back, before sentiment moved in favour of a Conservative re-gain.


You can find the latest odds and election betting map for every seat on our dedicated microsite.

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