Is this 20 year old SNP candidate going to unseat Douglas Alexander?

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The SNP have selected 20 year old Mhairi Black as their candidate for Paisley and Renfrewshire South. A seat where Shadow Foreign Secretary Douglas Alexander has a majority of over 16,000 votes.

Amazingly, Black is now favourite to win the seat, following Lord Ashcroft’s polling showing the SNP ahead here.

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If this poll is accurate, Alexander would need every single Liberal Democrat and Tory voter to switch to Labour just to draw level with the SNP.

The SNP were 33/1 to win this seat pre indyref. The odds had got down to 13/8 before the Ashcroft poll and dropped to 4/7 immediately after. We have seen a little bit of money for Douglas Alexander to hold on in the last 24 hours; that in itself is quite unusual as virtually no-one has wanted to back Scottish Labour anywhere, no matter how big the odds get. So Wee Dougie’s odds have bounced backed to Evens today from 5/4.

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Yo can find our odds on every seat in Britain here.

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SNP Glasgow wipe-out just 5/2

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Despite Labour having huge majorities across the city, the SNP are now only 5/2 to win all seven seats in Glasgow next May.

The Ashcroft polling of each seat had them ahead 6-1, which might make the 3/1 odds above look tempting to some. You can find all of our general election odds on our site here.

This market is a good indication of why we don’t usually allow accumulators on constituency betting. Normally, you’d multiply up the odds from each individual proposition to provide a price on all of those things occurring. If you did that with the SNP odds in each of the Glasgow seats, you’d get odds of just under 40/1, as opposed to the 5/2 that Ladbrokes are actually offering.

In bookies’ terms, this is known as a “related contingency”; the chances of the SNP winning each of the Glasgow constituencies are not independent and so just multiplying up the odds doesn’t provide a true price for the accumulator. Basically, if they win Glasgow North East, which is the only one Ashcroft had them trailing in, they will almost certainly have won all of the six easier seats as well. So the odds on a clean sweep are only a little better than those on them winning just that one, hardest, target.

We’ve also got some revised odds on how many seats the SNP will win across Scotland. They hold six at the moment but are currently favourites in 40 of the individual constituency markets.

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SNP now favourites in 40 seats

<> on February 17, 2014 in Aberdeen, Scotland.

Oh dear. The Ashcroft Scottish constituency polling may have been very bad news for Jim Murphy, but it wasn’t much better for Ladbrokes. We were hoping it might show some encouragement for Labour in some of their safest seats, but no. We are now sitting on some hefty losses if the SNP do as well as this polling suggests.

The SNP are now clear favourites in 40 seats in Scotland. Below is a list of every constituency, with their odds. You can find all of our latest constituency betting here.

Seat 2010  Winner SNP Odds
Moray SNP 1/100
Dundee East SNP 1/100
Angus SNP 1/100
Banff and Buchan SNP 1/100
Perth and Perthshire North SNP 1/33
Na h-Eileanan an Iar SNP 1/25
Inverness, Nairn, B & S Lib-Dem 1/8 SNP GAIN
Argyll and Bute Lib-Dem 1/10 SNP GAIN
Dundee West Labour 1/7 SNP GAIN
Gordon Lib-Dem 1/7 SNP GAIN
Ochil and Perthshire South Labour 1/6 SNP GAIN
Falkirk Labour 1/5 SNP GAIN
Caithness, Sutherland & ER Lib-Dem 1/5 SNP GAIN
Glasgow East Labour 1/3 SNP GAIN
Ayrshire North and Arran Labour 1/3 SNP GAIN
Fife North East Lib-Dem 1/3 SNP GAIN
Cumbernauld, Kilsyth & K.E.  Labour 1/5 SNP GAIN
Glasgow North Labour 2/5 SNP GAIN
Kilmarnock and Loudoun Labour 2/5 SNP GAIN
Linlithgow and Falkirk East Labour 2/5 SNP GAIN
Motherwell and Wishaw Labour 2/5 SNP GAIN
Glasgow South Labour 2/5 SNP GAIN
Aberdeen North Labour 4/9 SNP GAIN
Dunbartonshire West Labour 1/2 SNP GAIN
Livingston Labour 1/2 SNP GAIN
Glasgow Central Labour 1/2 SNP GAIN
Edinburgh East Labour 1/2 SNP GAIN
Inverclyde Labour 4/7 SNP GAIN
Paisley and Renfrewshire S Labour 4/7 SNP GAIN
Airdrie and Shotts Labour 4/6 SNP GAIN
East Kilbride, Strathaven & L Labour 4/6 SNP GAIN
Glasgow North West Labour 4/6 SNP GAIN
Lanark and Hamilton East Labour 4/6 SNP GAIN
Midlothian Labour 4/6 SNP GAIN
Paisley and Renfrewshire N Labour 4/6 SNP GAIN
Stirling Labour 4/6 SNP GAIN
Dunbartonshire East Lib-Dem 4/6 SNP GAIN
Edinburgh West Lib-Dem 4/6 SNP GAIN
Aberdeen South Labour 8/11 SNP GAIN
Aberdeenshire W & Kincardine Lib-Dem 4/5 SNP GAIN
Glasgow South West Labour Evs
Coatbridge, Chryston & Bells’ Labour 11/10
Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock Labour 5/4
Ayrshire Central Labour 5/4
Dunfermline and Fife West Labour 6/4
Ross, Skye and Lochaber Lib-Dem 6/4
Edinburgh South West Labour 13/8
Edinburgh South Labour 7/4
Glenrothes Labour 15/8
Edinburgh North and Leith Labour 15/8
Glasgow North East Labour 2/1
East Lothian Labour 2/1
Renfrewshire East Labour 9/4
Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath Labour 11/4
Rutherglen and Hamilton West Labour 11/4
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & T Conservative 3/1
Dumfries and Galloway Labour 3/1
Berwickshire, Roxburgh & S Lib-Dem 3/1
Orkney and Shetland Lib-Dem 4/1

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SNP now favourites to win in Glasgow.

As the betting markets continued to reflect the SNP’s rise in the polls, a new milestone was established this week when they became favourites to win a seat in Glasgow this May. The nationalists are also breathing down Labour’s necks in the other six, according to Ladbrokes’ latest seat-by-seat odds.

2010 Lab vote % 2010 SNP Vote % Lab Odds SNP Odds
Glasgow North 44.5 11.9 11/10 4/6
Glasgow Central 52.0 17.5 4/6 11/10
Glasgow East 61.6 24.7 8/15 11/8
Glasgow South 51.7 20.2 8/15 11/8
Glasgow North East 68.4 14.1 1/3 9/4
Glasgow North West 54.1 15.3 2/7 5/2
Glasgow South West 62.5 16.3 2/7 5/2

Glasgow North, a constituency in which they got under 12% of the vote in 2010, now has the SNP as favourites. In the days before the Independence referendum, you could have backed the SNP at 10/1. It’s tricky for those of us who attempt to predict elections to simply ignore the results of the last election; perhaps we all have to accept that the Scottish political landscape has changed for ever and that anchoring our expectations to 2010 is pointless.

Interestingly, this seat saw a huge gamble on the Liberal Democrats to take it at the last general election – they went off at 5/4 on the day. You can have 100/1 for them to win it this year.

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Glasgow East was an SNP by-election gain in 2008, only for Labour to win it back easily at the general election, so there is some history of nationalist success in the city. If they are going to do as well in May as current polls suggest, they will almost certainly end up winning seats like this. Perhaps the 11/8 is still a value bet.

You can find our odds on every seat in Great Britain here.

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East Dunbartonshire: SNP now favourites.

Constituency profile courtesy of ukpollingreport.co.uk

Constituency profile courtesy of ukpollingreport.co.uk

Pretty amazing. Having come fourth with 11% in 2010, the SNP are now favourites to win the East Dunbartonshire seat next May and unseat the Lib Dem incumbent, Jo Swinson.

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This could be one of the most interesting three way marginals in the whole of the UK, and we’ve seen support for all three main contenders. The shrewdies who took 50/1 about the SNP in the days before the referendum can be quite pleased with their position now.

Perhaps the SNP should be even shorter. If you take a look at electionforecast.co.uk their probabilities would produce odds of:

  • 4/9 SNP
  • 4/1 Labour
  • 10/1 Lib Dems

I would advise anyone to have a good look at the FAQs on their site before committing too much money on the basis of their forecasts. Predicting Scottish seats is incredibly tricky at the moment. The basic problem is how much can you anchor forecasts to the 2010 results, or do we just accept that the world of Scottish politics has totally changed and start from scratch? We’ll have a better idea once we get some constituency level polling in the New Year.

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SNP now favourites to win most Scottish seats.

There’s been a bit of a gamble on the SNP to win the most seats in Scotland in next May’s general election. Available at 11/10 this morning, a rush of money has seen them move into 8/11 favourites.

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There hasn’t been any particularly new polling or news developments over the weekend that I am aware of to cause this. When you get this sort of move, it’s most likely some kind of tipping line, or perhaps a coordinated group of gamblers.

We’ve also made a number of adjustments to our constituency betting north of the border. Let’s have a look at the seats in which the SNP are now clear favourites, and their latest chances of winning each seat, as implied by Ladbrokes’ odds:

6 SNP HOLDS

  • 93% Moray
  • 91% Angus
  • 92% Dundee East
  • 90% Banff & Buchan
  • 87% Na h-Eileanan an lar
  • 85% Perth & North Perthshire

8 GAINS FROM LIB DEMS

  • 77% Gordon
  • 66% Argyll & Bute
  • 61% Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey
  • 61% Fife North East
  • 59% Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross
  • 45% Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine
  • 43% Edinburgh West
  • 34% Dunbartonshire East (joint favs w/Labour)

3 GAINS FROM LABOUR

  • 71% Ochil & South Perthshire
  • 64% Falkirk
  • 63% Dundee West

So, if they win every seat in which they are favourites, that still only leaves them with 17. They will likely need to win around 27 in order to be the largest party in Scotland. Which probably indicates that either our constituency odds for the SNP are a little too generous or that Labour are a good price at Evens to win most seats. I expect the answer probably lies somewhere in the middle.

Will the SNP overtake Labour in Scotland?

<> on February 17, 2014 in Aberdeen, Scotland.

If some of the recent Westminster polling is reflected in next May’s general election, the SNP are heading for a landslide next May. Yet, at Ladbrokes, we still make Labour favourites to win most Scottish seats.

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Despite the incredible rise in their membership, it’s not going to be easy keeping up the enthusiasm and momentum generated by the YES campaign. It’s also quite likely that they are experiencing something of a honeymoon effect from Sturgeon’s election as leader.

If they can persuade the huge numbers of previous non-voters who turned up to vote YES to support them next year, there is obviously a chance that they can pick up a very large number of seats. However, it’s not hard to imagine that most of those people will revert to type and not bother for the Westminster election. That may not matter, as it’s pretty clear that enthusiasm for Scottish Labour is at an all-time low. If Jim Murphy is elected as leader (he’s currently a hot 1-5 favourite) he might be able to improve that somewhat.

Currently, the SNP hold 6 of Scotland’s 59 seats. The Tories and Liberal Democrats combined should probably win around at least five seats, so to get a plurality ahead of Labour, the Nationalists are probably going to have to win about 27. Looking at Ladbrokes’ individual constituency odds, their 27th most likely win is Glasgow Central. Not easy.

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Constituency profile courtesy of ukpollingreport.